Introduction to the US Open
It’s a little early for regrets, but there are two facts about the 2016 US Open that are worth noting ahead of the 2025 renewal, which is already threatening to play out in a similar fashion. One is total driving, and the other is how few of the world’s best players contended at Oakmont nine years ago. Arguably the best player in the game won that week, but most of the big names were well out of things.
Analysis of the Current Situation
Something somewhat similar unfolded in 2007, and if you compare these two renewals to say the last couple at Torrey Pines or Pinehurst, Oakmont has produced more varied, less predictable leaderboards. My inclination was to believe that would change, especially with the top of men’s golf so strong at the moment, but there are some indications to the contrary. Still, there are 54 holes still to play and enough world-class players within hailing distance of the lead for us not to rush to judgement.
Impact of Weather on the Game
Much now will depend on the weather. There is a chance of rain every day from here, but not a guarantee of it. Without rain, Oakmont can be as difficult as the USGA want it to be, and an over-par winning score would feel perfectly plausible. Should significant rain fall, enough of an edge will be taken from this course to push us back towards the four-under total which got the job done in 2016.
Review of Selections
Of my selections, two were excellent, two were not. Unfortunately, one of those who was largely excellent, Ludvig Aberg, let a very good score get away from him and will have work to do. Jon Rahm’s should’ve been better as he missed a couple of very short putts, but one-under was very much job done in the evening and if he continues to hit the ball as he did in round one, he won’t be far away.
Brooks Koepka’s Performance
The trouble is what happens if and when he doesn’t, and it does feel to me like there’s more random in this course than I allowed for. That’s why I’m not rushing to add Brooks Koepka, into 12/1 after a two-under 68, after which he spoke and looked like the version of Koepka who won two of these. I find it hard to believe he’s so far behind Scottie Scheffler in the betting, but Rahm looks the right favourite and we’ll stick for now.
Koepka to Beat Thomas and Lee
One way we can side with Brooks Koepka’s encouraging start is in a three-ball with Justin Thomas and Min Woo Lee, which he won with plenty to spare on day one. Siding with winners again isn’t often something I like to do as the market often overreacts to 18 holes in a way we should caution against, but in this instance, we’re talking about a major behemoth laying down a marker while two players alongside him confirmed what many would’ve feared pre-tournament.
Ortiz to Beat Jordan and Sugiura
It was tempting to side with Viktor Hovland at 7/2, a price which feels generous given the way he struck the ball, but opposing Scottie Scheffler in three-balls isn’t something I’m in a rush to do. Similarly, Jon Rahm at close to evens feels fair but I quite liked Jordan Spieth’s chances coming into the week and have seen nothing to change my mind on that. Russell Henley is a solid-looking option but the two players he’s in with have similar skill sets so with enough major firms having priced up Carlos Ortiz to beat Matty Jordan and Yuta Sugiura, I’ll side with what looks the strongest bet on the board today.
Griffin to Beat Novak and McNealy
This is a comfortable grouping for Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak, winners of the Zurich Classic pairs event, but it’s Griffin who has kicked on from that and he can win this three-ball of potential Ryder Cup candidates again. Griffin produced his now typical through-the-bag performance in round one, perhaps not quite as strong off the tee as he has been but excellent in all other areas.
Rose to Beat McIlroy and Lowry
I wouldn’t usually be in a rush to take on a player of Rory McIlroy’s brilliance nor even 2016 contender Shane Lowry, but Justin Rose looks value against them at around the 3/1 mark. Rose shot 77 on a miserable day for this group but his long-game was good. In fact, he gained strokes in all departments bar putting, where he ranked stone last of 156 players, so there really was only one issue.
Betting Tips
2pts Koepka and Ortiz to win their three-balls at 7/2 (General)
1pt Griffin and Rose to win their three-balls at 19/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt four-fold the above selections at 40/1 (General)
Conclusion
Much like the 2016 US Open, the 2025 renewal is shaping up to be an unpredictable and challenging tournament. With the weather playing a significant role, it’s difficult to make any concrete predictions. However, based on the current situation and the performances of the players, it’s clear that the next few rounds will be crucial in determining the outcome of the tournament. With a bit of luck and some solid play, any of the top contenders could find themselves in the running for the championship. As always, it’s essential to bet responsibly and within your means.
