MLS Matchday 33 Recap
The most recent weekend in Major League Soccer (MLS) history was nothing short of explosive. A total of 57 goals were scored, with four hat-tricks and several blowout victories that caught many fans and bettors off guard. If you had placed bets on the over, you likely came out on top. The oddsmakers seemed to rely too heavily on public favorites, which created opportunities for sharp bettors to find value in unexpected places.
Notable Upsets and Favorites
Several matches went against expectations, with some surprising results:
- Vancouver Whitecaps, slim favorites at -130, delivered a stunning 7-0 demolition of Philadelphia. The over 3.0 was met by halftime, and Thomas Müller’s birthday hat-trick exceeded anytime-scorer props.
- LAFC, justified favorites at -115, secured a 4-2 road win at San Jose in front of 50,000 fans. Denis Bouanga’s three goals tied Carlos Vela’s club record, easily surpassing the 3.5 total.
- Inter Miami, with heavy public money riding on them due to Lionel Messi’s presence, suffered a 3-0 loss at Charlotte. This exposed the “Messi tax,” where the odds are inflated due to his star power. A saved penalty also killed numerous anytime-scorer parlays.
Best and Worst Value Plays
- Winners:
- Charlotte (+210 ML vs. Miami): This was the sharp-side hit of the weekend. Toklomati’s hat-trick punished inflated Miami pricing and flipped playoff narratives.
- Cincinnati (-105 vs. Orlando): Solid even-money value at home. Evander’s stoppage-time strike secured playoff safety and paid out steady chalk.
- Losers:
- Philadelphia (+275): Despite being a tempting contrarian play, the Union’s collapse left no chance of cashing.
- Austin (+165 vs. Dallas): Backers saw potential value, but a flat 2-0 derby defeat made tickets worthless and playoff hopes shakier.
Market Behavior and Futures
The weekend highlighted the volatility of MLS, where public money inflates lines around stars like Messi and Vela, while sharp plays emerge on undervalued teams such as Vancouver and Charlotte. Futures markets reacted swiftly:
- San Diego FC’s title odds crashed from +700 to +8000.
- The Whitecaps shortened from +3300 to +800, reflecting market confidence in their ceiling with the arrival of Müller.
Early Line Watch for Midweek Matches
- RSL vs. LAFC: Expect RSL as slight home favorites, but LAFC’s eight-game unbeaten road run makes them live dogs. If the price drifts near +200, LAFC offers sharp value.
- Minnesota vs. Austin FC: Totals will likely open at 2.5, but with both teams leaking goals, early action should push the over.
- Inter Miami vs. Seattle: Books will continue to overprice Miami. If Seattle lands +250 or longer, fading Messi hype remains the sharp play, especially considering their previous encounter in the Leagues Cup play.
Conclusion
The explosive weekend in MLS served as a reminder of the league’s unpredictability and the importance of looking beyond public favorites. Sharp bettors who identified value in less-hyped teams came out on top. As the season progresses, keeping an eye on market behavior and being willing to fade the hype will be crucial for making informed betting decisions. The upcoming midweek matches offer more opportunities for sharp plays, particularly in matches where public perception may not align with the teams’ actual competitive edge.
