College Football Upsets and Favorites: Where Are Bettors Leaning?
The 2025 college football season has kicked off, and Week 1 saw a major upset with Florida State defeating then-No. 8 Alabama 31-17. The betting public was largely behind Alabama, with over 95% of money line wagers at DraftKings coming in on the Crimson Tide. However, bettors were successful in backing Utah against UCLA and South Carolina against Virginia Tech.
Iowa vs. No. 16 Iowa State: A Rivalry Renewed
The Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line as the Hawkeyes and Cyclones meet in Ames. The Cyclones are 3-point favorites, and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook have come in on Iowa State. The SportsLine Projection Model is backing Iowa, however, with the Hawkeyes covering in 58% of simulations and winning in 49% of simulations.
Baylor vs. No. 17 SMU: A Potential Upset
The Mustangs were overlooked entering the 2025 season, but they’re looking to make a statement against Baylor. The SportsLine Projection Model backs the Mustangs as 2.5-point favorites, with SMU covering in 69% of simulations and winning in 72% of simulations. Bettors are also behind the Mustangs, with 79% of spread bets and 77% of money line bets coming in on SMU.
No. 20 Ole Miss vs. Kentucky: Rebels Look to Bounce Back
Rebels fans are wary of a potential upset against the Wildcats, but 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are coming in on Ole Miss as 8.5-point favorites. The SportsLine Projection Model rates Ole Miss -9.5 as an “A” grade play, with the Rebels covering in 61% of simulations.
Kansas vs. Missouri: The Border War Returns
The Border War is back after a 14-year hiatus, with Kansas and Missouri meeting on the gridiron. The Tigers are 6.5-point home favorites, and the model rates Missouri money line as an “A” grade play, with the Tigers winning in 79% of simulations. The public is backing the Tigers, with 54% of spread bets and 72% of money line bets coming in on Missouri.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State: A Statement Game
The Bulldogs have a chance to make a statement at home against the Sun Devils, who are 6.5-point favorites. However, the SportsLine Projection Model likes Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs covering in 52% of simulations and winning in 39% of simulations.
No. 15 Michigan vs. No. 18 Oklahoma: A Ranked Showdown
Both programs have been in the news lately, but they’re looking to put that behind them on the field. The Sooners are 5.5-point home favorites, but the SportsLine model is backing the Wolverines, with Michigan covering in 61% of simulations and winning in 49% of simulations. The public is also behind the Wolverines, with 54% of spread bets and 62% of money line bets coming in on Michigan.
Conclusion
The 2025 college football season is shaping up to be an exciting one, with several upsets and close games already. Bettors are leaning towards favorites in some matchups, but the SportsLine Projection Model is backing underdogs in others. As the season continues, it will be interesting to see how the betting public and the model’s predictions play out. One thing is certain, however: this season is going to be full of surprises and exciting matchups.
