Introduction to NFL Betting Markets
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant. You’ve got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through. So, which bets stand out when the Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets? Let’s dig into FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.
Broncos at Jets Betting Picks
The Broncos and Jets will face off in London at 9:30 am ET, giving us our third straight week with an international game to serve as an appetizer before the early window. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to be a close contest. These two teams are separated by 19 spots in our latest power rankings, per numberFire’s metrics, with the Broncos up at 8th and the Jets way down at 27th.
Broncos -7.0 (-118)
New York’s low slot isn’t exactly shocking given their 0-5 record, and that’s further backed by them sitting 26th in schedule-adjusted offense and 29th in schedule-adjusted defense. In contrast, Denver is 14th in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense. Justin Fields is actually averaging a respectable 0.06 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB), which is 13th among QBs with at least 100 drop backs, per NFL Next Gen Stats. However, this is arguably a misleading mark when we break down how he’s gotten there. Across the first three quarters, Fields has averaged -0.04 EPA/DB over 79 drop backs, whereas he’s averaged 0.21 EPA/DB in 51 fourth quarter drop backs.
Broncos Over 26.5 Total Points (-111)
This is a bit of a high mark for Denver to reach — they’ve scored 27+ points twice in five games — but both of these teams play at a fast clip, and New York has given up 34, 30, 29, 27, and 37 points this season. According to our Brandon Gdula, these teams rank fourth and seventh in adjusted pace, leading to this matchup projecting as the second-quickest in average offensive pace. Normally, this would push me toward the over of this game’s overall total (43.5), but I worry the Jets won’t be able to do enough to hold up their end of the bargain versus a tough Broncos defense.
J.K. Dobbins Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Considering we’re expecting a positive game script for Denver, there’s a good chance J.K. Dobbins has a productive day on the ground. Dobbins has exceeded this mark in four of five weeks, averaging 15.4 carries and 80.4 rushing yards per game. While he comes off the field more than we would like (51.4% snap rate), he’s the clear lead back of this offense and most recently saw a season-high 20 carries in Week 5. This matchup also checks out, as New York is 24th in adjusted rush defense and has allowed big performances to several running backs.
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Conclusion
The Denver Broncos are expected to win by over a touchdown against the New York Jets, making the Broncos -7.0 (-118) a good bet. Additionally, the Broncos over 26.5 total points (-111) and J.K. Dobbins over 68.5 rushing yards (-114) are also promising bets. Be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options and sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today. Remember to always use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
