Introduction to the Big Match
Newcastle return to the Champions League spotlight on Thursday night when they host Barcelona at St James’ Park. It promises to be one of the standout fixtures of the opening round, bringing together a side still finding its feet domestically and another who have already shown their attacking power in La Liga.
Eddie Howe’s team endured a frustrating start to the Premier League, failing to score in two of their first three matches and picking up just two points. The breakthrough finally came last time out, when new signing Nick Woltemade marked his debut with a goal in a much-needed 1-0 win over Wolves. That result lifted the mood, though Newcastle’s underlying numbers remain mixed. Their xPTS of 7.05 from four games is higher than the five they have actually collected, while an xG total of 0.93 suggests their finishing has not yet clicked.
Barcelona’s Form and Team News
Barcelona arrive in much better spirits. They thrashed Valencia 6-0 at the Johan Cruyff Stadium with braces from Fermin Lopez, Raphinha, and Robert Lewandowski. That win was the perfect response to a disappointing draw at Rayo Vallecano before the international break. Across their first four league matches, they have scored 12 goals from 9.1 xG and rank among the best for chance creation, though there are issues at the other end with 3.9 xGA conceded.
Team news plays its part. Newcastle remain without Yoane Wissa, who was brought in on deadline day to ease the burden in attack but picked up a knee injury on international duty. Barcelona are expected to be without Lamine Yamal, the teenager who has already contributed two goals and two assists this season but is undergoing treatment. Rashford, on loan from Manchester United, should feature again after registering his first La Liga assist against Valencia.
Bookies’ View and Head-to-Head
Barcelona are narrow favorites for the trip to St James’ Park at 23/20, an implied probability of around 47%, while Newcastle are 23/10, giving them just over a 30% chance, with the draw at 3/1 (25%). The goal markets also point to an open contest, with over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2 (67%) and both teams to score at 4/9 (69%).
Barcelona and Newcastle have met four times in European competition, with the Spanish side winning three of those encounters. Newcastle’s only success came in the first meeting back in September 1997, when they edged a famous 3-2 victory at St James’ Park. Barcelona responded with a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture later that year, before recording two further victories in the 2002/03 season, winning 3-1 at home and 2-0 away.
Players to Watch
Raphinha looks a strong candidate to test the Newcastle defense. Last season in the Champions League, the Brazilian winger attempted 51 shots across 14 appearances, averaging 3.8 per 90 minutes. He hit the target 21 times, a 41% success rate, and managed to score 13 goals, showing a level of efficiency well above his 5.9 xG. So far this campaign in La Liga, Raphinha is already averaging 7.5 shots per 90 with 35% of them landing on target.
Predicted Line-ups and Match Analysis
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes
Barcelona (4-3-3): Garcia; Kounde, Garcia, Cubarsi, Martin; Pedri, De Jong, Casado; Torres, Lopez, Raphinha
The stage is set for an exciting match. St James’ Park will be rocking, and with both teams expected to create chances, it promises to be an open and entertaining game. The intensity of the match, combined with Barcelona’s history of picking up cards in European away fixtures, makes it likely that both teams will be carded.
Anything Else to Consider
The numbers point strongly towards a game that delivers both goals and cards. Barcelona’s attacking output has been relentless, registering 85 shots across their first four league fixtures, more than 21 attempts per match, with 30 hitting the target. Newcastle’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed 50 opposition efforts in four Premier League games, including 12 on target. Discipline is also a strong angle, with Newcastle collecting five yellow cards and one red across their four league games, while opponents have drawn 55 fouls from them.
Betting Tips
- Both teams to score & both sides to be carded
- Raphinha over 2.5 shots & over 0.5 shots on target (10/11 at Bet365)
Conclusion
In conclusion, the match between Newcastle and Barcelona promises to be an exciting encounter with both teams expected to create chances and possibly pick up cards. With Raphinha in fine form and the attacking power of Barcelona, coupled with Newcastle’s improving attack, the stage is set for a thrilling game. Considering the bookies’ view, head-to-head statistics, and players to watch, it’s essential to weigh all factors before making any predictions or placing bets.
