Introduction to Tennis Betting
The tennis betting market is a place where I have achieved significant success in online sports betting. By analyzing court differences, player details, and market inefficiencies, I am able to identify strong betting targets. The ATP schedule, which runs almost year-round, provides a constant stream of opportunities for bettors.
What is a First-Set Total and Why Are They Interesting For Bettors?
A first-set total is a type of bet where the bettor predicts the number of games played in the first set. This number is usually set at 10.5, and bettors can choose to bet over or under. For example, if a player wins the first set 6-4, the under bet would cash. If the set goes to a tiebreak, or the other player wins 7-5, the over bet would cash. The winner of the match or what happens after the first set is irrelevant.
Patterns in Tennis Betting
At first, betting on first sets might seem arbitrary. However, after watching enough tennis, patterns start to emerge. Players often start slowly, feeling each other out and playing tight service games. This is especially true in Grand Slam matches or late-stage matches in tournaments. As players become more confident, they may take more risks and play more aggressively.
Hunting for First-Set Overs
To hunt for first-set overs, I look for matches that are likely to be tied 5-5, with no breaks of serve, going into the 11th game of the first set. This guarantees a win on an Over 10.5 bet. About 20% of all sets will go to a tiebreaker, but their appearance is not randomly distributed. Certain player details and match conditions make a first-set over more likely.
Men’s Tennis is King for First-Set Overs
As a general rule, I prefer to bet on women’s tennis. However, when it comes to expecting long, drawn-out first sets, the ATP tour is where you want to be. Service holds are what we want, and that’s just more consistent in men’s tennis.
Track the Biggest Servers on Tour
In tennis, there are players known as “Servebots” who have an elite first serve that piles up aces with unreturnable balls. For first-set overs, these players are awesome. They rely heavily on the dominance of their own service game, and they often have weak return games, which props up the other player’s service game, too.
Target Evenly Matched Players
A top 30 tour player in a first-round match against a qualifier is probably not likely to spawn a first-round tiebreaker. Instead, look for a late-week match between two players of roughly equal skill, which could lead to more cautious and conservative play in the early going.
Head-to-Head History is a Huge Tell
While profiling player matchups, don’t neglect to investigate the head-to-head history of two players about to face off. Individual player style is often a large and repeatable factor in specific matchups. So if two players have a history of reaching tiebreaks, there’s a great chance that their next set will be a tiebreak again.
Never Blind Bet Anything – Always Consider Player Form
Lots of historical player data can help decide when to bet, but don’t forget to factor in a player’s recent form. A player that’s normally a great server, but is in a seven-week funk of playing terribly, is not a good bet for anything, including a first-set total.
Pay Attention to Court Composition
Not every court plays the same, and knowing that is a big factor in tennis betting. Clay is a slower style that emphasizes volleying. Hardcourts are quicker than clay, but not as fast as grass. For big servers, grass courts are a huge advantage because the ball moves fast and doesn’t bounce very high off the surface of the court.
First Set Tennis Betting Strategy: Notes to Remember
- Target the ATP men’s tour
- Track the biggest servers
- Stick to grass or hardcourt – particularly indoor hardcourt
- Look for late-week matches between more evenly matched players
- Head-to-head record can be illuminating
- Always consider form
Live Betting for Tennis Odds
Live betting on tennis odds is available for thousands of matches each year. You can place wagers during tournaments around the world, while watching the French Open on TV, streaming an Australian Open match from your phone, or checking scores for a WTA event. You can place a bet online from your computer or your phone with mobile sports betting.
Conclusion
Tennis betting can be a lucrative market for those who understand the patterns and nuances of the game. By analyzing court differences, player details, and market inefficiencies, you can identify strong betting targets. Remember to target the ATP men’s tour, track the biggest servers, and pay attention to court composition. Always consider player form and head-to-head history when making your bets. With practice and patience, you can become a successful tennis bettor and enjoy the excitement of live betting on tennis odds.
