Introduction to Sports Betting
Becoming a profitable sports bettor can be a challenging task, but the process is relatively simple: find bets that are likely to win and place them. To achieve this, it’s essential to follow a well-structured approach. In this article, we’ll outline a five-step strategy to help you turn a profit from sports betting.
Choosing the Right Sportsbook
The first step in becoming a profitable sports bettor is to sign up with a reputable sportsbook. With numerous options available, it’s crucial to make an informed decision. We’ve compiled a list of the best sportsbook sign-up promotions to help you get started. It’s also recommended to play at multiple books to take advantage of the best prices and capitalize on sign-up offers.
Selecting a Sport to Bet On
Once you’ve chosen a sportsbook, the next step is to select a sport to bet on. You can bet on almost any sport at public sportsbooks, from professional basketball to college hockey. Specializing in a particular sport can help you develop an edge, especially early on. Our site offers profitable bets on various sports, including MLB, NBA, NFL, and WNBA.
Calculating Expected Value
After selecting a sport, it’s time to find bets with positive expected value. To do this, you need to calculate the expected value of a given bet by subtracting the implied odds of an outcome from your estimate of that outcome’s probability. There are two main approaches to estimate the probability of an outcome: projection-based and market-based. Our industry-leading sports betting model uses a market-based approach to calculate expected value.
Finding Positive Expected Value Bets
Once you’ve calculated the expected value of a bet, you can determine if it’s a worthwhile wager. A bet with positive expected value (+EV) is a good bet, while a bet with negative expected value (-EV) is a bad bet. Our model identifies +EV bets by indexing the odds from across the market, adjusting for hold, and weighing book sharpness.
Example of a +EV Bet
Let’s consider an example of a +EV bet. Suppose our model identifies a bet on Carlos Rodon to stay under 7.5 strikeouts at -150 as a +EV bet. The model calculates the probability of this outcome, which we call true odds, and determines that the bet has a 4.5% EV. This means that if you have a bankroll of $1,000, you should wager $23 on this bet for the optimal outcome over the long term.
Securing Compounding Returns
The key to long-term success in sports betting is securing compounding returns. If you can find +EV bets every day, your returns can add up quickly. It’s essential to maintain a consistent approach and avoid cognitive biases. By following our five-step strategy and using our +EV betting results tool, you can project your own returns and make informed decisions.
Conclusion
Becoming a profitable sports bettor requires a consistent approach, discipline, and a well-structured strategy. By following the five steps outlined in this article, you can increase your chances of success. Remember to stay focused, avoid biases, and keep a long-term perspective. With the right approach and tools, you can achieve compounding returns and turn a profit from sports betting. At OddsShopper, we let our +EV betting results speak for themselves, and we invite you to subscribe to Portfolio EV to get started with our profitable sports betting strategy.
